Source: Wells Fargo
Sep 10th
U.S.
- Disappointing data this week reaffirms the notion that economic growth will remain sluggish in 2H12.
- While the unemployment rate fell from 8.3% to 8.1%, the drop was largely attributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate as nonfarm payrolls increased by just 96,000, far below the consensus expectation.
- The ISM Manufacturing Index remained below the demarcation line for the third consecutive month, declining to its lowest level since July 2009.
- Construction spending unexpectedly fell 0.9% in July with broad-based declines.
- Nonresidential spending contracted by 0.6% and residential outlays shrunk by 1.6%; contrarily, single family expenditures improved 1.5%
- Next week's key data points:
- Consumer Price Index (Friday) - Consensus forecast: 0.5% higher; the downward trend in consumer price inflation may finally be over.
- Retail Sales (Friday) - Consensus forecast: 0.6% increase; slightly slower than the 0.8% improvement in July.
- Industrial Production (Friday) - Consensus forecast: 0.1%; a disappointing ISM Manufacturing Index report likely precedes a weaker Industrial Production report than last month (0.6%).
International
- Mario Draghi, ECB President, seems to have developed a new plan for bond buying that will likely help solve the economic issues in the Eurozone.
- China continues to watch Europe, its largest export market, closely; the results of the bond buying efforts proposed by the ECB will likely determine any economic action of the Chinese government.
- The effects of the Eurozone crisis on commodity prices and commodity exports is negatively effecting the growth prospects in emerging markets.
- Strong growth is not expected to resume in the near-term, but improved expectations are on the horizon.
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